On Killing bin Laden: an Analysis

A copy of an email service that I got today.  It has an in-depth analysis (which may be true) that
goes far beyond what the so called “Legacy Media” will present.

http://www.kforcegov.com/Services/IS/NightWatch.aspx

Pakistan-US: Comment:
Bin Laden and a son are dead, killed in a firefight by US Navy SEALS carried in
two helicopters to Abbottabad, Pakistan, just 35 miles north of Islamabad. The
US commandos took custody of his body to prove he is dead and got away safely.

News services quoted unidentified US officials that the
body was prepared for burial according to the Muslim ritual. Readers might
wonder who gave such an order and why.

The Abbottabad location is important for two reasons. Bin
Laden could not have lived in a compound in Abbottabad without official
Pakistani government sustenance. Abbottabad is an upscale area and a garrison
town, but not so large as to be impersonal. Bin Laden was living in protected
luxury. Many people had to know that and probably will come forward in a little
time.

On 7 December 2001, Bin Laden escaped from the tunnels in
Tora Bora, Nangarhar Province, Afghanistan, with the help of a local warlord
named Hazrat Ali, who betrayed US forces who had hired him to help capture bin
Laden and is now a member of the Afghan Parliament for Nangarhar. Bin Laden and
his gang crossed the Tora Bora mountains to Parachinar, Pakistan, where a
Pakistan Army brigade was deployed to ensure his capture if he crossed the
border. They failed, of course. He headed east to Kohat, another Army garrison
town and disappeared.

The distance from Kohat to Abbottabad is several hundred
kilometers by road, but the two towns are part of the Pakistan Army network of
garrison towns in the northwest. Bin laden reportedly moved around in the northwest,
but one inference is that bin Laden has been in the safe keeping of the
Pakistan Army for a decade. The news reports suggest the compound was specially
built for him and his enterprise, which had to have been subsidized by Pakistan
and, through Pakistan, by US aid to Pakistan.

Secondly, his compound could not have been attacked from
Afghanistan, him killed and his body taken by US Navy SEALs flying US
helicopters so close to Islamabad without official Pakistani government
cooperation. The US insisted Pakistan played no part in the operation and that
the team flew from Afghanistan. That clearly is a cover story for Pakistani
public consumption to try to avert overwhelming anti-Pakistan and anti-US
demonstrations, which are probably inevitable in any event.

Abottabad is not some remote village on the border. It is a
large town in eastern Pakistan, on the main road to Kargil and the north as
well as to Muzaffarabad and Pakistani Kashmir to the east. It is northeast -
towards India – of Islamabad and within the Pakistan air defense intercept zone
for the national capital which is protected by the Pakistani integrated air
defense system. Nothing can fly in that region without detection and without
permission from the Pakistan Air Force, even from Afghanistan.

The conclusion is inescapable that the Pakistan Army
protected bin Laden and recently decided to give him up, rather than sacrifice
the Army’s relationship with the US. The terms are not known as yet, but there
certainly is a trade in which bin Laden was sacrificed. The trade might involve
an end to US drone attacks across the border, which humiliate the Pakistan
Army, or a new coordination regime for drone attacks into Pakistan.

Bin Laden was a hero in Pakistan. He stood up to the United
States and lived …for ten years. Readers should expect an enormous backlash
against Americans.

If the Pakistan civilian government survives, it will be
because of the cover story that the US acted unilaterally. If the cover story
works, on the surface, the US and Pakistani relationship will appear in the
international media to take a nose dive. That will not be the truth, though few
Pakistanis will know the truth. If the cover story is not believed, the
government will not likely survive. There will be investigations by the
National Assembly.

One lesson of analysis of terrorist behavior is that
terrorists are most vulnerable when they move about. A month or so ago, Asia
Times online published a report about bin Laden’s movements in the
border regions. Those reports look credible. Abottabad has good access to the
western border and bin Laden had Pakistani protection. Movement to the border
would have posed no major problems, but movement always increases the risk of
detection.

Bin Laden was killed with two couriers, whose fate is not
reported. The point is that this operation had to have inside help. The
increased contacts and movements woould have increased the circle of
people who knew bin Laden’s location and, thus, the likelihood of a
serious security breach, especially by low-paid staff.

A final point is that the operation appears to have
been a success primarily of human source intelligence and special
forces operations, not the drone program, though every asset probably had some
role. Bin Laden’s mansion compound was  too near Islamabad for any
armed drone attacks.

Afghanistan: Comment:
The death of bin Laden will put to the test whether the Taliban and anti-Afghan
government fighting groups are an extension of al Qaida or home grown rebels.
The NightWatch hypothesis is that bin Laden’s death will have little to
no impact on the fighting in Afghanistan. If that hypothesis proves accurate,
then the anti-Kabul fight will clarify as a Pashtun uprising that is not
connected to al Qaida in any substantive way.

Similarly, if the Pakistani Taliban continue their
terrorist fight against the government in Islamabad, that also will undermine
the AF/PAK linkage. In other words, decapitation of al Qaida will not make
Afghanistan or Pakistan more secure. It is a victory of justice visited on a
mass murderer. The myth of the bin Laden narrative as the root of America’s
security problems should die with bin Laden.

Herman Cain

Herman Cain is a businessman talking about running for President.  He has some remarkable achievements and I hope he knows what he is getting into.

http://www.hermancain.com/index.asp

So…an open letter to Herman Cain:

Mr. Cain,

I hope that you and your family are ready for the onslaught should you become the nominee.

You are the Left’s worst nightmare: An American with a strong character and notable accomplishments that just coincidentally happens to have an African ancestry.    A man who can be judged on the Content of His Character (and accomplishments) and not only the Color of His Skin.

They will attack you even more brutally than they have attacked George Bush, Robert Bork, Clarence Thomas, and Sarah Palin.  They will call you an “Uncle Tom” (Clarence Thomas) or like Condoleezza Rice an “Aunt Jemima”.  They will call for your castration (Jesse Jackson’s call for Obama before they became “friends”).  They will call for your wife to be gang raped as Sandra Bernhard called for Sarah Palin. They will publically wish for your death as Nina Totenberg called for Jessie Helms to get AIDS or as Julianne Malveaux’s wish for Justice Clarence Thomas, “…wife feeds him lots of eggs and butter..dies early like many black men do, of heart disease.”  They will target you for your race as Sen’s, Kennedy and Rockefeller targeted Alberto Gonzales.  They will do anything to destroy you just as Obama did to Jack Ryan in 2004.

I know that this will happen because they have done it before and they continue it today.

Forewarned is forearmed.  If you and your family choose to take this on, my wife and I will do anything we can to support you.

And may God bless you.

Jon Jewett

Japan, San Francisco, and homeowner’s insurance

OK Bunkie, perhaps you are asking yourself:  “Self, what in H—L do Japan and San Francisco have to do with my homeowner’s insurance?”

Well…..get a cup of Java and sit yourself a spell.  This may take a while to connect.

(Trivia for today: Coffee was called Java because a lot of coffee was grown there in the early part of the 20^th Century.  There was also an earthquake in Java in 2009.  And 2006 for that matter.  And Krakatoa was off the coast of Java.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Krakatoa

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Java_coffee

First, the earthquake and tsunami in Japan provide a vivid demonstration of just exactly what an earth moving event can cause.  But, Japan is only the latest to experience a recent earthquake, with a big one in Indonesia in October of 2010 and the ones in Java as noted above.  These earthquakes were on what is called “The Pacific Ring of Fire”.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_Ring_of_Fire

In the article, you will note that these earthquakes are on the western side of the Pacific Plate.  The eastern side bumps up against the West Coast of the USA from the Aleutians in Alaska down to the north half of Baja California.   The plates are moving in relation to one another and as they move, stress is built up when the edges of the plates stick against one another.  When the stress gets great enough, it is relieved by the two plates slipping; a mechanism that results in earthquakes.  There is speculation that the plates are relieving stress and there will be a string of earthquakes around the “Ring of Fire” in a clockwise direction.  That would imply that there is going to be the next Big One, maybe in Alaska and maybe in San Francisco.

So……now let’s talk about insurance (Wow!  That’s a big step!)

Insurance is a type of cooperative arrangement to share risk.  Let’s assume that you and I and 98 other people each have a house worth $100,000. None of us can afford to replace our house if it burns down.  So, one of us starts a company to share that risk.  Let’s suppose that we can “gestimate” fairly accurately (assessing the amount of monetary risk is called “underwriting”) that in ten years, one house will burn down.  So, in every ten years, we will have to put a total of $100,000 to compensate the one for the loss of their house.  That works out to $100 a year from each one of us.  ($100 times 100 people times 10 years.)  Now the individual that has the insurance company doesn’t do that full-time job for free. So, he invests the money he receives and collects interest on it.  And once he gets enough money in reserve, we can be fairly sure that our risks are covered.

But……..what if the risks are NOT equal?  Suppose you build your house of brick with a tile roof and the chances of it burning down are one in 100 years.  Your neighbor builds his house of straw with the chances of burning down of one in five years.  His risk is twenty times your risk so it is only fair that he pay 20 times your rate.
Right????

Well, two things can happen.  First, all of the Little Piggies with Straw Houses say it’s “NOT FAIR” that they have to pay the full cost of the risk they have assumed.  So the Government starts an insurance pool and charges a “fair” price.  Like flood insurance.  There is one little problem:  There is not enough money coming in to cover the risk.  But that’s OK, because when the pool falls short after a catastrophe, they take YOUR tax dollars to pay off all of those insurance claims.  Boy, are YOU ever screwed!

There is another way that Little Piggies deal with the problem:  They DON’T BUY ANY INSURANCE!

Now back to earthquakes.

I went to high school in the San Francisco bay area.  Way back then, they were talking about “The Big One”.  And there have been a bunch of pretty good size ones since then, but not “The Big One”.  So….if you had a house/business in San Francisco and you knew that “The “Big One” was due at any time, you’d get earthquake insurance, right?

Well, only 15% of the value of San Francisco is insured against earthquake loss.  The owners out there know that they are at risk, but they choose not to pay to insure themselves.  But not to worry, because when “The Big One” comes, the government will hold a gun to your head and steal you money to give to those “Poor Victims” (of their own greed and stupidity) that are now homeless and without insurance.

And if you think I am making it up, the Government is STILL spending your money on the damn fools in New Orleans who refused to cover their risks.  Even though everybody knew what the risks were.

(In a previous life time, I was married to a woman I met some 60 miles SOUTH of New Orleans.  And I recall talking with her family in 1972 about the prediction that New Orleans was going to be flooded.  Not only due to the geology, but also due to the corruption in the bodies that were maintaining the levees.  Curiously enough, a couple of years before Katrina, The Love of My Life and I made a road trip to New Orleans.  I suggested we go before it was wiped off of the map. EVERYBODY KNEW THE RISKS!)

And to top it off, they blame the insurance companies for being greedy!

Boy, are YOU ever screwed!

(PS-you might print this out and date it.  Put it somewhere so that you can find it after “The Big One”.  That way, you can tell your friends that you knew all along what would happen and why.)

Regards,

Steamboat Jack (My evil twin)

Why in the world??

CBS reveals that the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (BATFE – the Federal bureaucracy that controls said items.)  has been allowing firearms to be transferred illegally from gun dealers in the United States to drug cartels in Mexico.  The BATFE has had a policy of approving the transfer of firearms by the gun dealers to criminals.  (Each firearm sale by a licensed dealer is approved by the government by one method or another.)  Not only did they allow it; they also taped it as you can see from the video attached here.  (The interesting thing is that CBS even reported it.)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ntp4iv_s0dY&feature=player_embedded

OK, Bunkie, ask yourself:  “Self, why in the world would they do that?”

“They” said that it was so they could “take down” the people at the top.  But, they busted nobody and the guns they allowed through have been (and will be) used in uncounted murders, including even that of a fellow agent.  Money talks and B–L S–T walks, so the bottom line is that the BATFE has been arming the drug cartels and contributing to the 30,000 some murders that have taken place!  Why would an agency of the United States Government aid in the arming of these brutally violent drug gangs?

I can make a guess:  By sending arms to the drug cartels in Mexico, it increases the violence.  Then the firearms are recovered and traced back to the United States.  That, in turn, gives the BATFE and the Donks a reason to limit OUR firearms freedoms and eventually confiscate every firearm that you and I have purchased legally.  After all, they have our names and addresses and the capability of confiscating some 90% of the firearms sold since 1968.  And Mrs. Bubba Clinton is pushing for a United Nations treaty to limit OUR firearm ownership.

The bottom line is:  By contributing to the senseless murders in Mexico they create more propaganda for them to push their anti-gun agenda.  People are murdered  as a direct result of their actions and the Donks just don’t care.

Pray for our country.

Regards,

Steamboat Jack (my evil twin)

Sending a Message

I received a survey/plea for a contribution from the Republican Senatorial Committee.  I don’t have unlimited funds so I have to choose who gets my contributions.  But….I can still send a message, so I sent them the following:

**********************

Every problem we are facing today was caused by or made worse by Congress.  That’s YOU.

Medical care:  40% of medical cost is the cost of complying with YOUR regulations.

Post office:  Bankrupt; a black hole for my tax dollars.

Fannie May and Freddie Mac: YOU created the housing bubble and YOU caused the worldwide economic collapse, and YOU are still sucking billions our tax dollars for those two failed institutions.  Totally YOUR creation.

Medicare, Medicaid, and YOUR Health Care Reform Bill:  Bankrupt and it looks like they will bankrupt Texas.

Social Security:  Over my working career, YOU took some $240,000 away from me.  Money that I earned.  Some YOU gave to other people because they deserved my money more than I.  The rest YOU spent.  Some $2.5 trillion in Social Security/Medicare/Medicaid surplus, and YOU spent it all.  YOU replaced it with bad debt that my children and grandchildren will have to pay back.  First YOU confiscate my money and then YOU
stick my children and grandchildren with the bill for what YOU have done.  And that promise that YOU made?  Every year YOU told me that I would get a check every month for the rest of my life? Now YOU are talking about cheating me out of what YOU promised because I worked hard and saved my money.

Last year, YOU and the bureaucracies that YOU created published some 70,000 pages of new regulations. And YOU don’t have even the beginnings of a clue as to what those regulations are about.  Not a clue.  Maybe that’s the problem.  YOU don’t even have a clue.

Immigration:  YOU write the laws and YOU create the bureaucracies to enforce YOUR laws.  A problem? YOU bet and YOU caused it!

The country is bankrupt.  Let me spell it out:

B-A-N-K-R-U-P-T

YOU-Congress- are borrowing 42% of every dollar you spend.  And the budget cuts?   Give me a break!  They are chump change!  The money is all gone.  YOU’VE spent it.

The only Senator that seems to get it is Jim Demint.

When the bulk of the Republican Senators become more than just Democrats in Drag, then I will consider sending YOU money.  Until then, I am sending my money to Jim Demint.  I trust him; I don’t trust YOU to
do your job.

Angry?  If you understood what YOU have done to this country, then YOU would be angry also.

But, I’m afraid that YOU don’t have a clue.

Regards,

Jon Jewett

More on Egypt

 

The NY Times is little more than a radical leftist rag and a mouthpiece for the current regime.   However, it is worthwhile because it offers a glimpse into the thinking of the regime.

This article states that:

1.  The regime is working to force Mubarak out of Egypt.

2.  The regime wants the Moslem Brotherhood to “share” power.

It is indeed puzzling that “I AM the ONE” wants to turn the mid-east country with the largest army over to an organization that has vowed to exterminate the Israelis.  (A clue:  you can’t “share” power with a violent jihadist organization.  You kill them or they kill you.  The choice is up to you.)  Unless that is his goal.

See yesterday’s post.

From today’s NY Times:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/04/world/middleeast/04diplomacy.html?_r=2

…………the proposal also calls for the transitional government to invite members from a broad range of opposition groups, including the banned Muslim Brotherhood………..

Senior (US) administration officials said ………….. Mubarak in an effort to persuade the president to step down now.

What’s up in Egypt?

Lots of words and no pictures.  But….important!

If you have been following the news at all, you must have heard about the trouble in Egypt.  The Main Stream Media Narrative is that:  A Brutal and Corrupt Regime  (supported by a fascist United States, naturally) is being overthrown by a Peace Loving and Freedom Seeking popular movement called the Moslem Brotherhood.  The President and Secretary of State have said/implied that Mubarak should step down and (the rumors are) that “He Whose Middle Name Cannot be Spoken” is negotiating with the Moslem Brotherhood.

Why anyone would think that the government of the United States can negotiate with the Moslem Brotherhood is beyond me.  Their rhetoric is that they want to impose a totalitarian Islamic state on the entire world.  They espouse the extermination of the Israelis and anyone else that opposes them, including “the Great Satan” (that’s you, Bunkie).  Perhaps “I AM the One We Have Been Waiting For” has a romantic attachment to violent revolutionary movements.  His grandfather was a part of the Mau-Mau uprising against the British and his closest advisor (Bill Ayers) was, literally, a bomb throwing terrorist whose only regret is that he didn’t “do more” (as in kill more people?).

But….the so called “Main Stream Media” and the current régime have been so wrong, so laughably, criminally wrong, so many times that a rational person would suspect that the popular narrative is…wrong.

Here is another analysis of current events in Egypt.  It appears that the current regime continues to do our country harm, perhaps irreparable harm, on the world stage.  We have become a laughing stock to our enemies and a horror to our allies.

From:  www.kforcegov.com

Egypt: Health Minister Ahmad Farid said three people died and 639 were injured in street encounters on 2 February between pro-Mubarak supporters and the demonstrators in Cairo, Thousands of pro-Mubarak protesters demonstrated in Cairo, Alexandria and other towns to show support for the president’s latest speech condemning the opposition. Police cars made their first appearance in Semoha since the protests on 28 January. In Mahatit al-Ramal district, clashes erupted between pro-Mubarak and anti-Mubarak protesters in front of Al-Qaed Ibrahim Mosque, though the army asked the pro-Mubarak demonstrators to leave the area.

Egyptian Central Bank Deputy Gov. Hisham Ramez said Egyptian banks will open 6 February after being closed for a full week, regardless of the situation. The banking system will be ready with sufficient funds to deal with all transactions .

The Egyptian Army spokesman said the people’s message has been heard and it is time for the protesters to help Egypt return to normal.  The spokesman said the army will remain vigilant in preserving the country and protecting it by all means. He said the protesters started this revolution and  thus are the only ones capable of returning the country back to normal, adding the military promises to stand beside the Egyptian people and their interests as well as the country.

Comment: Today was the day of Epiphany. In Tahrir Square, the atmosphere changed from euphoria to fear in less than 24 hours. The anti-government demonstrators were outnumbered and surrounded by pro-Mubarak supporters, trapped. They discovered that Army tolerance of their street displays also extended to the pro-Mubarak activists. The Army showed that it was strictly neutral, supporting neither side. Soldiers said they had no orders to move. This was the first epiphany.

There were four others.

The second epiphany was that the anti-government demonstrators were, in fact, not an outpouring of universal opposition to the Mubarak regime.

Many everyday people will be harmed by the end of the Mubarak administration. Mubarak extended and expanded the patronage state. The prospect of its disruption, even, would harm tens of millions of Egyptians. The Western media narrative of a nationwide uprising for increased political freedom derived from the activism of 250,000 people in Tahrir Square has proven to be flawed if not outright false, a story for entertainment news.

The youth of Cairo do not like Mubarak, but no news service has explored just what they prefer. Nor have any attempted to learn what the other 80 million Egyptians prefer. Mubarak apparently knew that when he refused to step down.

One press report stated that the incongruous images of men on horses and camels riding through Tahrir Square showed irate workers from the pyramids whose livelihood depended on tourism, which the demonstrators had wrecked. Actually, that account is more credible than that of a nationwide uprising for voting rights based on the actions of the youth of Cairo.

The third epiphany is that Mubarak has flushed out his opposition. Readers may be confident that the secret police have photographic images of every protestor in Tahrir Square. That is no longer a technological challenge.

The fourth epiphany is that pro-Mubarak and anti-Mubarak activists both look to the Army to stabilize the situation. The Army got what it wanted from Mubarak and is now living up to its promises and responsibilities. It is in control now.

The Army and the Ministry of Defense called on the anti-Mubarak activists to leave the Square, early on 2 February. The open source reports indicate the violent, pro-Mubarak men showed up in force when the anti-government demonstrators ignored the Army’s orders. They still labored under the misperception that Army inaction was Army sympathy or support.

The fifth epiphany is that the Army has not sided with the anti-government demonstrators. It appears the Army tolerated and used the demonstrations to ensure no dynastic succession. Every Egyptian leader since 1952 has been a military officer. The Army’s action protected that precedent. The Army all along appears to have acted in pursuit of its own parochial interests, which are negative towards Gamal Mubarak as the next president, but positive towards letting Hosni Mubarak serve to the end of his term of office.

One well informed, Brilliant Reader suggested that the next leader of Egypt will be announced this week, after Friday prayers. He is the Chief of the Armed Forces Staff.

What seems to have happened. A crackdown by pro-government proxy forces and secret police occurred on 2 February. The Army got what it wanted and will now proceed to clear Tahrir Square. Having satisfied the Army on the issue of succession, Mubarak has found a line he can hold so that he will make no further concessions.

Everything now depends on the actions of the army. In the NightWatch instability analysis, the onset of violence, precisely like that seen today, indicates a convergence towards power sharing. The government is attempting to prevent any further transfer of power to the opposition.

The opposition has been swelled by the infusion of power.  It has obtained international legitimacy, because el Baradei is its spokesman.  It is trying to hold its ground. It does not have legitimacy in Egypt necessarily and might not even be pro-democratic, despite the uncritical adulation of the American press. Some significant elements of the opposition are pro-Sharia, anti-US and anti-Israel.

The violence means that the pro- and anti-Mubarak entities are converging. Convergence is always violent because both sides seek to use force to achieve political dominance. Neither wants to share power.

If the Army stays neutral, some form of power sharing will be negotiated by el Baradei and Vice President General Omar Suleiman because the regime will have lost its guns. If not, the Army will clear the Square, indicating the guns remain loyal to the President.

The NightWatch prediction is the Army will clear the Square before Friday prayers. If that occurs, it will confirm that the Army has taken control of the government but is keeping Mubarak as a figurehead.

If that does not take place, the next phase of unrest will occur in which the uprising evolves into a movement for systemic change, also known as revolution. The Army collapses and every one from the Mubarak era runs for the exits.

Egypt-US: For the record. An Egyptian official remarked on 2 February that there is a contradiction in U.S. demands for both an orderly transition of government and for President Mubarak to step down  immediately, The Associated Press reported. The official also said that Mubarak’s decision not to seek re-election in September was not a result of pressure from the United States.

Comment: No matter the outcome in Egypt, Egyptian leaders will not trust the US. They will take US incentives, but they will never consider the US a reliable ally, paraphrasing an Israeli Ambassador today.