A copy of an email service that I got today. It has an in-depth analysis (which may be true) that
goes far beyond what the so called “Legacy Media” will present.
Bin Laden and a son are dead, killed in a firefight by US Navy SEALS carried in
two helicopters to Abbottabad, Pakistan, just 35 miles north of Islamabad. The
US commandos took custody of his body to prove he is dead and got away safely.
News services quoted unidentified US officials that the
body was prepared for burial according to the Muslim ritual. Readers might
wonder who gave such an order and why.
The Abbottabad location is important for two reasons. Bin
Laden could not have lived in a compound in Abbottabad without official
Pakistani government sustenance. Abbottabad is an upscale area and a garrison
town, but not so large as to be impersonal. Bin Laden was living in protected
luxury. Many people had to know that and probably will come forward in a little
On 7 December 2001, Bin Laden escaped from the tunnels in
Tora Bora, Nangarhar Province, Afghanistan, with the help of a local warlord
named Hazrat Ali, who betrayed US forces who had hired him to help capture bin
Laden and is now a member of the Afghan Parliament for Nangarhar. Bin Laden and
his gang crossed the Tora Bora mountains to Parachinar, Pakistan, where a
Pakistan Army brigade was deployed to ensure his capture if he crossed the
border. They failed, of course. He headed east to Kohat, another Army garrison
town and disappeared.
The distance from Kohat to Abbottabad is several hundred
kilometers by road, but the two towns are part of the Pakistan Army network of
garrison towns in the northwest. Bin laden reportedly moved around in the northwest,
but one inference is that bin Laden has been in the safe keeping of the
Pakistan Army for a decade. The news reports suggest the compound was specially
built for him and his enterprise, which had to have been subsidized by Pakistan
and, through Pakistan, by US aid to Pakistan.
Secondly, his compound could not have been attacked from
Afghanistan, him killed and his body taken by US Navy SEALs flying US
helicopters so close to Islamabad without official Pakistani government
cooperation. The US insisted Pakistan played no part in the operation and that
the team flew from Afghanistan. That clearly is a cover story for Pakistani
public consumption to try to avert overwhelming anti-Pakistan and anti-US
demonstrations, which are probably inevitable in any event.
Abottabad is not some remote village on the border. It is a
large town in eastern Pakistan, on the main road to Kargil and the north as
well as to Muzaffarabad and Pakistani Kashmir to the east. It is northeast -
towards India – of Islamabad and within the Pakistan air defense intercept zone
for the national capital which is protected by the Pakistani integrated air
defense system. Nothing can fly in that region without detection and without
permission from the Pakistan Air Force, even from Afghanistan.
The conclusion is inescapable that the Pakistan Army
protected bin Laden and recently decided to give him up, rather than sacrifice
the Army’s relationship with the US. The terms are not known as yet, but there
certainly is a trade in which bin Laden was sacrificed. The trade might involve
an end to US drone attacks across the border, which humiliate the Pakistan
Army, or a new coordination regime for drone attacks into Pakistan.
Bin Laden was a hero in Pakistan. He stood up to the United
States and lived …for ten years. Readers should expect an enormous backlash
If the Pakistan civilian government survives, it will be
because of the cover story that the US acted unilaterally. If the cover story
works, on the surface, the US and Pakistani relationship will appear in the
international media to take a nose dive. That will not be the truth, though few
Pakistanis will know the truth. If the cover story is not believed, the
government will not likely survive. There will be investigations by the
One lesson of analysis of terrorist behavior is that
terrorists are most vulnerable when they move about. A month or so ago, Asia
Times online published a report about bin Laden’s movements in the
border regions. Those reports look credible. Abottabad has good access to the
western border and bin Laden had Pakistani protection. Movement to the border
would have posed no major problems, but movement always increases the risk of
Bin Laden was killed with two couriers, whose fate is not
reported. The point is that this operation had to have inside help. The
increased contacts and movements woould have increased the circle of
people who knew bin Laden’s location and, thus, the likelihood of a
serious security breach, especially by low-paid staff.
A final point is that the operation appears to have
been a success primarily of human source intelligence and special
forces operations, not the drone program, though every asset probably had some
role. Bin Laden’s mansion compound was too near Islamabad for any
armed drone attacks.
The death of bin Laden will put to the test whether the Taliban and anti-Afghan
government fighting groups are an extension of al Qaida or home grown rebels.
The NightWatch hypothesis is that bin Laden’s death will have little to
no impact on the fighting in Afghanistan. If that hypothesis proves accurate,
then the anti-Kabul fight will clarify as a Pashtun uprising that is not
connected to al Qaida in any substantive way.
Similarly, if the Pakistani Taliban continue their
terrorist fight against the government in Islamabad, that also will undermine
the AF/PAK linkage. In other words, decapitation of al Qaida will not make
Afghanistan or Pakistan more secure. It is a victory of justice visited on a
mass murderer. The myth of the bin Laden narrative as the root of America’s
security problems should die with bin Laden.